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On Saturday 17 April 2004 11:58 pm, you wrote:
> Hi Craig!
>
> Well, daddy Bill will most likely bail them out with a whole bunch of M$
> money . . .
>
Ya know, Pete, I really don't think so. Bill G. does not send his money on
overtly stupid errands. If the Royal Bank of Canada calls its loan (and I
believe they will), SCO is toast and ripe for a buyout. Why would Gates prop
it up when he could simply buy it and be clear of the earlier non-compete
provisions of his licensing agreements?
Note that MSFT had no cash money in the earlier round of loans ... just a few
phone calls worth of influence and possibly some favorable pricing for the
RBoC. Perhaps Bill also took a loan out with them and agreed to pay a
slightly higher interest rate ... there are lots of ways to play that game.
The BayStar loan was apparently secured by SCO stocks. Calling the loan now
indicates that BayStar doesn't think the security is likely to stand up much
longer. Looking at the charts, I would tend to agree with them. The Royal
Bank of Canada is likely to reach the same conclusions because they have
access to the same numbers. Being a regulated bank in a foreign country,
their legal options might be different, but they are surely looking anxiously
for the exit.
Now, as big a pain as the SCO suit has been, can you imagine what the
situation would be if Bill owned SCO (and its drawer full of patents and
licenses)? School is now in session. If Bill actually owns SCO, his
non-competition agreement becomes history and he would be in possession of
the legal right to sue to defend the SCO IP.
Daryl might as well clean out his desk and begin cashing in on that golden
parachute of his. I have no compassion for him ... his greed led him to play
in a league well over his head. He may be doing well to simply avoid prison
over the stock manipulation he seems to have engaged in. But even though it
is "game over" for McBride, we aren't anywhere near half-time for the other
players and the SCO portfolio still lives. That portfolio will still be
around when every one of the human players in this drama is little more than
a footnote in a history book.
I think that this was engineered by MSFT. None of their money was ever at risk
and they maintained their legal distance, but they stand to be the big
winners.
SCO's suit against IBM is basically dead in the water. MSFT can buy SCO
(either directly or though a shill company), drop the suit and bring it again
using different tactics. And a LOT more political clout.
Bill
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