On Sun, Sep 12, 2004 at 06:40:49PM -0400, John Pedersen wrote:
>
>
> >I never said I trust the government's figures implicitly. Nor do I
> >consider it wholly the government's fault for lowering interest rates.
> >That does add to the borrowing which occurs, but it's not the only
> >reason that people increase their debt.
>
> Of course not. You misunderstand, again. Just like filling the car
> with gasoline isn't the reason that the car moves (ooops, a simple
> example, sorry).
>
> Back to what you said: "lowering interest rates....is not the only
> reason that people increase their debt." Of course not--but IT
> ENABLES people to increase their debt! Just like gas enables a car to
> go. The government's incentive in feeding in the money is very
> simple: keep people shopping, and a goodly percentage of them will
> think all is well. I think you provide proof of that. Maintain the
> illusion and don't pop the bubble.
>
Yes, the Fed lowers interest rate to stimulate commerce. This affects
businesses who want to make capital improvements as well as consumers,
and a great deal of the resultant borrowing is from them. But consumers
are also beneficiaries of this, even in things like refinancing their
houses from 8.5% down to 5.25%. I don't necessarily think this means the
government fudges figures to make things look better.
And I never said everything was fine. I've admitted that more than one
of the things you consider are alarming are true. I just take a more
optimistic view. For example: consumers, with more money available
because of lower interest rates, engage in more borrowing. I don't
necessarily extend that indefinitely into the future. I believe that
as interest rates go up again, borrowing will slack off and consumers
will continue paying down their debt.
I believe the economy is doing well. Not great, not the best it's ever
been. There are some marginal aspects to the economy, like the increased
borrowing. However, I don't believe this means our economy is a house of
cards ready collapse at any moment. A great many factors would have to
come together at once in order for that to happen, and I don't believe
they will. The probably _could_; I just don't believe they will.
>
> >The government is completely
> >duplicitous, out to do us in and lie to us at every turn. They're
> >probably in league with Halliburton on this whole thing.
>
> Actually, yes, even though you are being sarcastic, you are actually
> stating my opinion quite accurately. I do believe corruption abounds
> at just about every level of government, and, yes, Halliburton is
> getting contracts for several billions of dollars in Iraq. That's
> BILLIONS, with a B. Is it all above board and totally innocent? I
> don't have the facts to prove otherwise, although many, many
> allegations have been made. Investigations are ongoing. But, no,
> perish the thought--with Billions at stake, I'm sure that nobody would
> break any rules, or tell a fib, or anything like that.
>
Oh no, here we go. Halliburton again. There ought to be a rule in
political discussions, like Godwin's Law.
Halliburton is one of a very few companies with the resources and
expertise to do what they do. If you want to believe that they get these
contracts because of some conspiracy, be my guest.
I'm not saying that all in government is honest. Every time a
congressman votes for a pork project, I consider that dishonest. $1000
hammers isn't honest. Leasing Boeing jets when we could buy them seems
to be some kind of boondoggle. Each case has to be decided on its own
merits.
I'd liken this to the "vast left wing conspiracy" in the press. It's an
undisputed fact that the mainstream media lean heavily to the left in
this country (and in the world). That doesn't mean they all get together
once a week to get their stories straight. It just so happens that, for
a variety of reasons, people in the press tend to be liberal. As such,
when they speak, they speak with a liberal voice. It's not a conspiracy,
just a fact. Same with the government. The government is huge, and I
don't believe they all get together once a week to figure out how to
screw us. There may be pockets of corruption. Mostly I believe there is
vast ineptitude and a lack of accountability in the government. Which
leads to a lot of stupid decisions and CYAing. But I also know that most
people attempt to do a good job when they can, both in government and in
the private sector. Being in government just makes doing a good job a
little harder.
>
> > Yes, John, we're all doomed. And you are the lone voice of
> > sanity in a world gone mad.
>
> Doomed? I don't think I said that. I think our children and future
> generations will have much poorer lives because of what has been done
> in the last few decades. Believe me, there are MANY MANY MANY other
> people who see further than next month or next year, and will agree
> with much of what I say. Just because no Slugonians agree with me,
> doesn't mean it ain't so!
>
For all you or I know, most Slugadonians agree with you. Most of these
guys sit back and listen in any discussion, even political ones. There
are 400 people on the main SLUG list, but maybe only 20 are active
contributors at any one time.
You want to talk about the world we leave our kids? You need to go back
to the days of FDR, who saddled us with programs still around today,
which are crippling our economy. Reagan-Bush-Clinton-Bush are just the
latest on the chain. We have a government ten times as large as what is
needed, funded by unfair and burdensome taxes and suppressed by crushing
regulations. How about the fact that lawmakers have been incredibly
slack in enacting tort reform. To the point where most businesses have
to twist themselves into pretzels just to avoid the inevitable frivolous
lawsuits. Why? Because most lawmakers are lawyers, and they don't want
to take bread out of the mouths of their fellow litigators. It used to
be that a family could live comfortably on the income of a single
partner. Now that's seldom true. This is what we leave our kids.
I don't really want to stir up a lot of other issues. I'm only saying
that I concur with you that we are leaving our kids a more difficult
future. I'm just not as pessimistic about the economy as you are.
> "Lone voice"? I owe you an apology. Now that I realise that you have
> never heard any of these facts before, no wonder you have closed your
> mind, hearing it from only a single idiot like me. I apologize for
> intruding on your world, and maybe one day you will hear these new
> ideas from somebody else that is more credible.
Well, maybe I can forgive you. _If_ you can make me a low interest loan
so I can go even deeper in debt. ;-}
Paul
This archive was generated by hypermail 2.1.3 : Fri Aug 01 2014 - 19:58:12 EDT