On Saturday 19 January 2002 15:41, you wrote:
> Juvenille spite where did that come from? (Not a flame just a
> question)
It seems that was hinted at in an earlier email where you said "I
think it is kind of interesting that they want to buy RedHat just to
stick it in Microsoft's fae that they don't have to rely on them to
get subscribers. " .
Let's not start a flame war.
I AOL isn't going to spend that kind of money simply to "stick it in
Microsoft's face". They won't be writing a check without a lot better
reason than that.
Actually, I don't think they really intend to buy RH at all. I think
it is probably getting close to time for them to renogotiate their
browser contract with MSFT. Among other things (think Machiavelli),
they are reminding MSFT that they don't have to agree to the "lock
in" unless it is financially to their advantage.
If MSFT calls their bluff, they may very well buy RH because it COULD
be a good play for them. Even if MSFT caves and gives AOL very good
pricing on MSIE, AOL might still buy RH. They don't even have to be
mad at MSFT to do it.
Here's why.
Microsoft's star is descending. The former growth was caused by a
huge influx of new users. That huge influx of affluent American
customers is over. But the growth of personal computers, and Linux,
in 2nd & 3rd world contries has barely begun. (Witness recent (12
month) news regarding Latin America, Africa, India, China and Korea.)
Growth for AOL will now come through adding these "fringe" customers
(read: Linux Users) to the fold. These fringe customers won't be
using any more of the atrociously expensive MSFT products than they
are forced to. Moreover, along with the distrust of America comes a
distrust of American products, particularly software. Among other
things, American software encryption was, until very recently, the
pits. It is still no better than available anywhere else on the
globe. The recent blundering copyright acts passed in this country
but which the US gov't. has announced intentions of enforcing
internationally are NOT popular elsewhere nor is the US intention of
global enforcement. Linux is seen as being "not-quite-American" ... a
good multinational product untainted by a global monopoly. To a
resident in a smaller country used to dealing with a larger one,
there is a sense of "sympatico" with "little Linux" taking on the big
bully and winning. It makes sense for AOL to come to the Linux
platform. Moreover, it makes sense for them to do it now rather than
before and rather than later. NOW is the opportune time.
1) they know what the track record of interrelations with open source
is through their experience with NS. It hasn't been smooth, but it is
manageable.
2) MSFT has painted itself into a corner where Linux users would
ignore MSIE in droves. Those who compose web pages might load a copy;
most other Linuxers would warm up to it like they would a pustulent
infection.
3) MSFT growth has stalled. It continues to be hugely profitable but
that is of little value to AOL ... AOL needs for the platforms it
sits on to grow at some rapid clip. MSFT has faltered. Soon it will
stumble. If the DOJ (etc) can bring it to its knees, it is likely the
EU will get in some serious kicks of their own. I don't hate MSFT ...
but they have told too many lies for too long and been too aggressive
to others to expect mercy for themselves. When the giant stumbles,
the midgets will be right there to pick its pockets and tie it up if
they can. There will be no help for the giant.
4) Linux growth has continued and possibly even accelerated. Current
useage figures are in the range of 12-18 million. That's a drop in
the MSFT bucket but compares favorably with the Mac / Apple crowd and
even comes out ahead because the Linux numbers have forward inertia
in their favor.
5) AOL can not grow at its currrent rates except by branching out.to
additional platforms ... the happy giant (MSFT) has gotten cranky and
his speed has slowed so it doesn't make sense to ride his coattails
anymore.
6) Microsoft has set the stage for Linux growth through its pricing
and policing policies.
7) Through Mandrake (and possibly other distros), Linux has developed
into a desktop contender. The Gnome Ximian project is cranking out a
credible desktop to give a decent alternative to the KDE desktop.
This means "comfort zone" for recent MSFT converts while still
leaving the command line or lightweight gui's for the hardcore.
Probably others can list even more reasons why now would be a good
time. I'm not yet convinced that this is what AOL is up to ... but it
might make good sense for them to at least consider these points at
this junction in time. Possibly (probably) they are just testing the
water to see what sort of reaction news of this type stirs up.
Certainly, even if they didn't plant the news item, they are
observing the results. Possibly they actually intend to buy Mandrake
or some other distro. Maybe it is all just a bargaining red herring
to get some leverage with MSFT. With no more info than is in the
Washington Post article, it is pretty much impossible to tell.
One thing is certain ... the LUG lists are busy today! :-)
Bill
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