Re: [SLUG] <OT> RIP Microsoft?

From: Norbert Omar Cartagena (slug@gnorb.net)
Date: Tue Feb 15 2005 - 15:18:06 EST


Pete Theisen wrote:

> perthie wrote:
>
>>> Hmm... I wonder then what the downfall of Linux might end up being?
>>> It reminds me of a comment by RMS: (here's an approximation)
>>>
>>> "If they remember our software, but forget our reasons for making it,
>>>
>>> then we have failed. If our software is long forgotten, but our
>>> process isn't, then we've succeeded."
>>
>>
>>
>> At the moment, IMHO, its downfall is lack of useability for people who
>> are used to microsoft based systems. People fortunate enough to have
>> spent a number of years growing with Linux or UNIX have no problem at
>> all with not-so-everyday tasks. The people I work with, for example,
>> have been using Microsoft almost their entire lives. They end up coming
>> to me with Linux questions as though I'm the local guru (in reality, I
>> know just barely enough to boot the kernel, change runlevels, and mount
>> volumes).
>>
>> In windows, all of us (people I work with) know where and how to change
>> a static ip address. In linux, I have to either be familiar with
>> ifconfig and route, as well as know all the options that must be passed
>> to each (and the man pages are so pedantic, they end up confusing first
>> time users) or figure out what graphical utility comes with a
>> particular distro that automates the task.
>>
>> If there was a more familiar (and standard) orginization of utilities
>> that was friendly to windows users, I think Linux would be far more
>> popular.
>>
>> As it stands now, Linux can take me to the moon, but I have to be an
>> astronaut to get there.
>
>
> Hi Perthie!
>
> I think there is a controversy as to whether Linux really wants to
> serve an average user. I think a fair number want it to be a closed
> club with a steep entry fee in terms of learning curve. That said, a
> fair number of times you hear RTFM it may just be a cover for "I don't
> know" . . .

Yes, but you guys are talking almost specifically about problems *right
now* that have been with Linux and open source software for a while,
problems which are being addressed and fixed. What I'm talking about is
the long term cycle and problems that may be (and likely are) with us
now, but which we don't perceive as problems -- and might not until its
too late. Bill Gates once pointed out (and I believe this was pointed
out in the story that originated this conversation) that no one sits
atop the world of technology forever. He's right. What I'm specifically
talking about is this:

In the long term, Unix's fall came because of (1) deregulation (when
AT&T closed the source), (2) because of splintering, and (3) because of
cost. At the same time, Apple was the wonder kid of the home PC market,
but fell after lack of innovation and its closed mentality made Apple
stagnant as a company. MS rose and took advantage of both of these
situations, first with Windows (specifically 95), then with NT. Apple
went down. Unix went down. MS rose, became a cool company, then became
big and powerful. Now, the company is almost being crushed under the
weight of its own success. Its hubris in the software market has given
way to software developed by people that actually listen to their
customers (although MS is starting to improve this). In addition, the
"one company can do all" frame of mind has all but zapped them of the
light-footed innovation they had when they concentrated on one market
sector. As far as the software sector is concerned, Linux and open
source technologies are taking over that spot.

Closed is being replaced by open. Big and slow are being replaced by
small and fast. MS is waning, Open Source tech is waxing. But despite
its success, Linux can't live forever, although open source may. Then
again, Linux is a product, but open source is more like a governance. In
order to look at both of these ideas in their proper way, we can almost
split them up into these two long term fates:

1) Linux's demise might come with the rise of a better system, likely
one that will be able to perform the same duties as Linux but more
efficiently. To be honest, FreeBSD might well be the culprit in this
case. It's more stable, more secure, and can run Linux programs without
much of a problem. But its licensing leads to major problems, unless
someone re-brands FreeBSD under something like (and not necessarily
"the") GPL, where changes can't be put under lock and key. (Which will
bring us back to square one with the splintering.)

But that will be the effect, not the cause. What do you guys speculate
will be that cause?

2) The "open source" mentality is a matter of beliefs, much like
democracy or communism. To some it might seem more like Christianity and
Islam, but to those people I'll usually give a history book and ask them
with "what fervor did our forefathers win our freedom?" Open source,
unless there is a MAJOR technological and societal paradigmic change,
isn't something that can be "killed." Nor can closed source. In-the-box
EULAs may. The GPL may. But although the idea of group collaboration is
rising right now, it's hardly a new thought. Its just an attractive one
given our society's paradigms and economic conditions. Like in the past,
it will either rise and fall, or like the evolution of all "beings" (and
I use this term loosely to describe not living organisms, but ideas
which grow as living organisms), it will go through stages until it
reaches "perfection" -- which might be so long a ways off that it's all
but useless for us to expect it as a goal within our lifetime. (Which
brings me back to RMS's statement.)

I'll end here for now, but I'd like to hear thoughts on this,
particularly form anyone here who might be some kind of historian.

Gnorb
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
This list is provided as an unmoderated internet service by Networked
Knowledge Systems (NKS). Views and opinions expressed in messages
posted are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the
official policy or position of NKS or any of its employees.



This archive was generated by hypermail 2.1.3 : Fri Aug 01 2014 - 19:10:38 EDT