>>Everyone else is playing catch-up.
>>Where will it all end? Good question. If you know the answer to that,
start investing your money now.
Some of this can be derived by looking at history:
Books did not end spoken stories, and personal tutorage.
Radio did not end books
Movies did not end books or radio
TV did not end movies or radio
The Internet did not end TV, Radio or books
Thus:
Podcasts will not end radio
Vodcasts will not end TV
Downloaded HDTV will not end movies or TV
But the trend is that the broad availability of low cost tools, combined
with oppressive tactics and high cost of traditional media, will cause a
shift in the market towards many more sources of material.
I stopped buying CD a while ago. I was buying them while my
music-downloading friend was discovering new stuff, but since she stopped, I
have as well. I would buy CDs, but I don't know the bands, don't listen to
much radio, and have no motivation to buy unknown CDs.
But I am an avid podcast junkie, and have purchased music I've heard there.
I've purchased all my music from non-RIAA sources in the last few years. I
suspect I'll end up doing the same.
Am I a member of a tiny group? Sure. Will this group hit critical mass? I
believe it will. At that point, new distribution channels will emerge. As
time goes on, they will likely become the establishment, just like Apple
changed from a 'change the world' company to a big "let's sue the source of
our product leaks" company.
Ken Elliott
=====================
-----Original Message-----
From: slug@nks.net [mailto:slug@nks.net] On Behalf Of Ian C. Blenke
Sent: Monday, April 24, 2006 3:55 PM
To: slug@nks.net
Subject: Re: [SLUG] Novell's CTO Blog - new entry
steve szmidt wrote:
>On Monday 24 April 2006 14:52, Levi Bard wrote:
>
>
>>>In effect I'm only fast-forwarding past content I don't wish to see.
>>>Was it ever decided whether that's legal? I'm sure that's a can of
>>>worms the MPAA
>>>
>>>
>>THEY'll tell you what you want to see!
>>
>>
>
>Oh good, I was not sure what I wanted to see...
>
>
With vlogging (video blogging) and RSS feed multimedia, aren't we really
beginning to see the end of broadcast media as we know it today?
If I can subscribe to feeds of audio/video that are applicable to _me_,
isn't the old school of broadcast media sufficiently challenged?
Take HD for example: I can't get 1080p video from terrestrial or cable TV
feeds (1080i is as high as they go), but I _can_ download "free"
iTunes trailers of movies at 1080p. Plus I get to subscribe to some
spectacular independant media that I wouldn't otherwise see on major
broadcaster's networks.
Both HD-DVD and BluRay don't interest me as a consumer due to the cost and
copyright limitations (if I pay $30 for a disc, if I scratch it I'd like to
have a backup copy around somewhere.. moreover, I'd really like to have a
DVR copy of it so that I can play that media without flipping disks around).
Many of the first releases are also "one layer" discs with reportedly
reduced quality so as not to impact movie sales. I will pay for 1080p media,
just as I pay for DVD media today, but the cost and limitations of fair use
are big reasons for not adopting a technology in my home.
Major studios keep remaking old films and series because it's safer than
betting on new fresh untested ideas. If Scooby Doo made money decades ago,
it's a safe bet the nostalgia will carry through a remake for the next
generation.
Meanwhile, cheap DV cameras and digital video editing software brings
homegrown video into the mix. Computing power becomes cheaper by the year,
making those digital special effects all that much more available to young
talent with the hope to create compelling media not available from the major
studios.
Peer2Peer networks (ala bittorrent) also impact digital media subscriptions.
Thankfully, for the studios, it's still beyond the average consumer. Walking
through a Manhattan subway stop two weekends ago, it was rather disturbing
to find such bootlegs sold from blanks sprawled out as makeshift
storefronts. The complexity of most consumers doing this themselves is the
primary barrier to entry. The studios really should fear a cross-platform
easy to use P2P anonymizing client with bittorrent like swarming.
The studios want me to pay money for DRM hardware in my PC that will enable
them to limit my viewing options. Without that DRM, I may not be able to
view their media, but is it really a loss for me? I can still watch
unencumbered independent films from the net, and NetFlicks is a pretty good
deal (pretty good realworld bandwidth) for DVDs (hey, I can suffer along
with some 480p from them).
I personally believe that studios will be forced more into a "blockbuster
movie made for home viewing" mode, rather than a noisy movie theatre with
rude patrons. As newer technologies like OLED make home "video walls"
cheaper over the next decade, and broadband increases to the home (hooray
FIOS!), the home theatre will drive more and more media purchases.
Apple's iTune Store is a good example of where things are heading: RSS feeds
from a commercial web frontend for purchasing media on demand.
Everyone else is playing catch-up.
Where will it all end? Good question. If you know the answer to that, start
investing your money now.
- Ian C. Blenke <ian@blenke.com> http://ian.blenke.com/
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