Re: [SLUG] AOL Looking to acqui

From: Norbert Cartagena (niccademous@yahoo.com)
Date: Sat Jan 19 2002 - 20:29:44 EST


>
> I seem to be missing a few points in relation to AOL purchasing RH.
>
> 1. What is AOL going to buy? Linux and almost all associated programs are
> under some form of public user license. RH major contribution is program
> verification and packaging by a nifty installer program.
>

The name. Red Hat is BY FAR the dominant force in Linux today (sorry to
all the Mandrake, SuSE and Debian guys out there, buy in a business
environment, in this side of the pond, it's RH or bust). The name is the
most important thing to Red Hat, because it's the thing they've worked
the hardest to create.

> 2. I thought IBM was the major corporate owner of RH. What do they think
> about this? Wouldn't that screw them up with their software?
>

No, IBM is simply a partner - who figured out what AOL is just now
starign to, that to rely on MS for survival is to wait for a slow but
sure death (in this case, in the desktop market, which would for all
intensive purposes kill AOL as we know it). And why would it screw them
up? Last time I checked, AOL made a browser/ISP connection and IBM
made.... well, server software for Linux. They don't clash.

 
> 3. As far as I understand RH principal asset is it integrity. How long do
> they think that will last if all RH Linux users are required to report to
> AOL Central by secret code like Netscape users are? Don't believe that then
> where does that news report come from on Netscape's email window?
>

Well, first of all, remember we're dealing with an Open Source company
still, when it comes to Red Hat. As for AOL's software, they're pretty
much free to do whatever they wish with it - provided that they don't
steal and GPL code OR link to any of the glib stuff. Luckily, RH has a
large enough user base and more than enough vigilantes to help curb this
sort of thing. As for the AOL window - don't know, never used AOL, 'cept
from a friend's house.

> 4. How long do they think it would take almost all RH users to say "Good by
> RH" and "Hello SuSE or Mandrake"? I seem to recall a major split in GUI
> because KDE uses Qt which is not public domain.
>

... and that's the power of Opens Source, the power of freedom of
choice, thee power of the GPL. But also remember that this might also
introduce another 33,000,000 new Linux users in a matter of months -
that's about double the user base now. Do you honestly believe that
every (or even MOST) RH users would drop AOL/RH for something else,
simply because it was associated with AOL? Sorry, but if that were the
caswe, no sysadmin would EVER touch a Windows network. Management likes
name, hires techies, techies use whatever management shoves down their
throat. And if Netscape is an indiator, RH will still be alive. What's
that little browser's name.... Godzilla, Mothra, Gamera... some
monster... ;-)

> What would make a lot of sense to both parties would be for AOL to give RH
> software away and provide technical support for its installation.

Not to AOL - the Linux user base for the home desktop is at 5% at most,
.25% at worst. It's not worth it for AOL to try and attach their hopes
on a user base that small unless they can somehow expand it. Requiring
the use of a Linux distro would go a LONG way towards that goal.

> After all
> you can down load RH for free and RH does make its money by providing
> service to corporate customers. This concept would expand RH user base and
> slowly move AOL onto another platform.
>

Maybe too slowly. That's the problem. With a company like AOL, if you
can make the move fast, DO IT. You have to, or you die. That's what
happened to Netscape. Corporations are going down the tube at all times.
The game is trying to crawl up the tube faster than you are beign
brought down it. AOL needs to move fast and thee acceptance of Linux
would (has) kill any company at the speed it's going. RH is successfull
because of the fast acceptance of Linux on the server. Same with SuSE.
Mandrake is successful because they gague their success on the Linux
margin - they stay relatively small. The advantage to all these
companies is the community support - a buffer to slow the descent
through the tube, if you will. The better the community support, the
slower the decline (even unto ascent). This is what is demostrated by
RH, SuSE, Debian, and the other Linux distros.

But that gets into another subject entirely.

Have a nice day :-)

Gnorb

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